The path to glory at next year’s FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico will be made clear this week with the completion of the Final Draw for the expanded 48-team tournament.
FIFA last week confirmed the pots for the showpiece event, which included making a call on where to place the six Playoff spots still up for grabs as part of the European and Intercontinental Playoffs next March.
Always one of the landmark events in the build up to football’s global showpiece, the Final Draw will be staged at the Kennedy Center in Washington DC this Friday, 5 December, starting at 12pm local time.
Here The Asian Game explains how the draw will be conducted and what it might mean for Asia’s collection of teams.
Which teams have qualified?
This is the first time the FIFA World Cup will feature 48 teams, having been a 32-team competition from 1998 to 2022.
As a result, Asia was awarded eight automatic berths, an increase from the four automatic places it has received at recent tournaments. Asia had six teams at Qatar 2022 by virtue of Qatar being the host nation, and Australia qualifying through the Intercontinental Playoffs, but with eight guaranteed teams this will mark the biggest ever collection of Asian teams at a FIFA World Cup.
A ninth team is possible should Iraq win their FIFA Intercontinental Playoff against either Bolivia or Suriname in March next year.
The first six qualifiers were decided in the Third Round of Asian Qualifiers, with the top two teams from each of the three groups advancing automatically to next year’s tournament.
Those teams were Iran and Uzbekistan from Group A, Korea Republic and Jordan from Group B and Japan and Australia from Group C.
Two further automatic berths were up for grabs in Round Four, played in the October window, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar earning their spot after topping their respective groups, albeit in controversial circumstances.
As previously mentioned, Iraq, courtesy of their nail-biting win over UAE in the Fifth Round last month, remain in the running and will face either Bolivia or Suriname in Monterrey on 31 March next year to determine their fate
How does the draw work?
Ahead of the draw the 48 teams were placed into four pots, with 12 teams in each pot, based on the latest FIFA rankings, released after the latest international window in November.
The three host nations, plus the top nine ranked teams, are in Pot 1, with the subsequent pots determined by ranking, except for Pot 4 which also contains the European and Intercontinental Playoff winners.
This means Pot 4 could contain Italy or Denmark, who would ordinarily be in Pot 2 based on their FIFA world ranking. The same is also true of Iraq, who would ordinarily be placed in Pot 3 based on their FIFA ranking of 58.
Starting with Pot 1, and then subsequently Pots 2, 3 and 4 (in that order), teams will be drawn at random and placed into one of the 12 groups until all teams from all pots have been drawn. The host nations are pre-drawn into Group A (Mexico), Group B (Canada) and Group D (United States).
Teams from Pot 1 will automatically be allocated position 1 of each group, while for teams from Pots 2, 3 and 4 a predetermined pattern has been established to determine the group position that teams are drawn into, depending on which pot they are drawn from.
Click here for the full Draw Procedures from FIFA.
Can AFC teams be drawn together?
One of the feature principles applied during the Final Draw is that of Confederation protection, which means it is not possible for teams from the same Confederation to be drawn together.
There is one exception to this rule, however, which applies to teams from UEFA.
With 16 teams from Europe, and only 12 groups, it is not possible for there to be only one European team in each group. This means every group will contain at least one European team, while there will be four that contain two teams from UEFA.
Who is in which pot for the draw?
Aside from the three host nations, and those who earn their spot from the European and Intercontinental Playoffs, teams are placed in one of four pots based on their official FIFA world ranking as per the latest update prior to the draw on 20 November.
The eight automatically qualified AFC nations are scattered across Pots 2, 3 and 4.
Four nations are included in Pot 2, being Japan, Iran, Korea Republic and Australia, which presents the best opportunity for a favourable group with two of their opponents, in theory, coming from lower ranked nations in Pots 3 and 4.
In Pot 3 are a further three nations in Uzbekistan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, who will be hoping the draw of teams from Pots 1 and 2 is kind to them as they look to navigate their way into the Round of 32.
Jordan are the lowest ranked of the eight automatic qualifiers, and as such will be placed into Group 4, where they will be joined by Iraq should the Lions of Mesopotamia qualify next year.
What time is the draw and where can I watch?
The Final Draw will be staged at the Kennedy Center in Washington DC this Friday, 5 December, starting at 12pm local time. That correlates to the following times in the qualified host nations:
- Doha, Qatar – 8:00pm
- Amman, Jordan – 8:00pm
- Riyadh, Saudi Arabia – 8:00pm
- Baghdad, Iraq – 8:00pm
- Tehran, Iran – 8:30pm
- Tashkent, Uzbekistan – 10:00pm
- Tokyo, Japan – 2:00am (Saturday, 6 December)
- Seoul, Korea Republic – 2:00am (Saturday, 6 December)
- Sydney, Australia – 4:00am (Saturday, 6 December)
Along with coverage on local FIFA-affiliated networks, live coverage will also be provided on FIFA.comand the FIFA World Cup YouTube channel.
When will the final match schedule be released?
FIFA has announced it will unveil the final match schedule 24 hours after the Final Draw in a live global broadcast on Saturday, 6 December at 12pm (local time) from Washington DC.
According to the FIFA media release, “…the reveal show promises to be one of the most significant moments on the road to 2026. Throughout the event, expert insights and reactions will be offered, breaking down the match-ups, analysing key storylines and providing perspectives on the host venues that will welcome the world in June and July next year.”
The broadcast will be carried live across FIFA platforms, including FIFA.com and FIFA’s YouTube channel. With the event to begin at the same time as the Final Draw 24 hours prior, the same start times apply as above.
What is the nightmare draw scenario?
Unless you draw one of the host nations, who are no pushovers and which present the challenge of facing a team inspired by playing at home, there is no escaping one of the world’s best in Pot 1.
Defending champions Argentina, likely featuring Lionel Messi in his final ever FIFA World Cup, will be one team to avoid, especially given the fervent support they will receive on American shores, while the same applies for Brazil, albeit their form isn’t as daunting on paper under Carlo Ancelotti.
But whether it’s France, England, Spain or Germany, the scenario remains the same. Although as Japan and Saudi Arabia proved at Qatar 2022, nothing is impossible.
In Pot 2, Colombia are a real danger team. Ranked 13th in the world, they enjoy massive support in the Americas thanks to a significant expatriate community, particularly in the United States and with stars like Luis Diaz and James Rodriguez, they are probably the biggest danger team in Pot 2.
Erling Haaland will feature in his first FIFA World Cup, as Norway return to the global stage for the first time since 1998, and given his form for club and country this year, no one will fancy the prospect of facing Norway from Pot 3.
Pot 4 throws up its own challenges. While in theory it contains the lowest ranked nations, the inclusion of the European Playoff winners throws a spanner in the works, meaning the likes of Italy, ranked 12th in the world, are a real danger and a team everyone will want to avoid should they qualify, even factoring in their own qualification dramas.
What is the dream draw scenario?
If you base it purely on rankings, drawing Canada would be the ideal scenario from Pot 1 given, at 27, they are the lowest ranked of the nations from Pot 1. That brings its own challenges facing one of the host nations, but perhaps offers the best chance for a result.
Given there are four Asian nations in Pot 2, that limits the number of options available and with Austria the lowest ranked of those they present on paper as the best option, alongside Ecuador.
South Africa return to the FIFA World Cup for the first time since they hosted the tournament in 2010 and with a largely domestic based squad, and ranked 61st in the world by FIFA, would clearly be the preferred option in Pot 3, alongside Paraguay who have played Japan and Korea Republic twice in the past few years and never emerged victorious.
There are some fantastic storylines in Pot 4, but it’s also filled with minnows in context to the rest of the draw, with the likes of Cape Verde, Curacao and Haiti, as well as New Zealand, presenting as the best options from this pot.
