The AFC Champions League (ACL) Elite concludes over the coming fortnight, as an unexpectedly expanded finals series returns to Jeddah for its second edition.
With the ongoing conflict in Iran forcing the postponement of the West Zone’s Round of 16 ties earlier last month, the AFC’s showpiece event has been stretched by an additional round, starting on Monday.
Despite the broadened billing, few will bet against another title for the hosts. Home advantage, rising player quality and an expanded overseas quota all feed into the growing influence the Saudi Pro League (SPL) holds over the continent. The question framing this year’s spectacle is not so much who may win, but whether anyone can realistically prevent a Saudi clean sweep on the way to the final.
For all the talk of dominance, it’s worth noting that Saudi clubs have won only three of the last six ACL titles, and have not gone back-to-back since Al Ittihad’s pair of triumphs back at the start of the century.
Yet with the league’s rapid investment and the introduction of an unrestricted last-eight format, the gap to the rest of the continent may now be considered at its widest point, and ready to be starkly tested in the coming weeks.
All three Saudi representatives arrive in Jeddah, however, in mixed form and contrastingly irritable moods. The only visible optimism back in Saudi Arabia lies with Al Nassr, whose five-point lead could see them stretch it further by the time the ACL Elite series concludes, as the SPL season reaches its final climax.
Recent dropped points for both Al Hilal and Al Ahli have handed the initiative to the yellow half of Riyadh, who now look poised to reclaim the domestic crown for the first time since 2019. For their rivals, domestic frustrations, whether over results or most recently in Al Ahli’s case, the officiating, have started to reach boiling point, but attention will now shift firmly towards the opportunity of continental silverware.
Last year’s champions Al Ahli arguably hold the strongest hand heading into the finals. Home comforts, momentum from last year’s title success, and a fully available squad – spearheaded by the in-form Ivan Toney and evergreen Riyad Mahrez – position Matthias Jaissle’s side as a serious contender to go back-to-back.
They have also shown the strongest one-off match capability and benefit from an initially favourable draw, beginning against an Al Duhail side that merely scraped through from the group stage with just two wins from eight.
Al Hilal, meanwhile, boast the most imposing credentials on paper; four-time ACL champions, still unbeaten domestically, and near flawless in the group stage, yet they feel the most erratic recently. Despite a comprehensive 6-0 win midweek, Simone Inzaghi is noticeably struggling to establish a coherent system on a regular basis, with the primary concern lying in attack.
Karim Benzema, earmarked as the focal point following his winter move from Al Ittihad, has yet to make a sustained impact due to injury, and will also miss the ACL run-in through cup-tie restrictions. In his absence, nominal “AFC striker” Darwin Nunez, omitted from the domestic squad and expected to depart in the summer, now has an unusually brief window to redefine his closing legacy and potentially rescue Al Hilal’s season.
By contrast, Al Ittihad appear the clear outsiders among the Saudi trio. The reigning SPL champions have rarely convinced this season, sitting over 20 points off the pace domestically and already eliminated from the King’s Cup, this competition represents their only available route back to continental football next season – however unlikely that seems currently.
The departures of Benzema and N’Golo Kante hasn’t helped their form of late, but more fundamentally, fluidity and defensive stability have been absent throughout the season. Their one saving grace may be the draw on paper, placing them on the perceived easier side of the bracket, away from both of their domestic rivals. Even so, little can be taken for granted, not even against an out-of-form Al Wahda, while J. League contenders Machida Zelvia could pose a far stiffer test.
Japanese clubs have long stood as the traditional counterweight to Saudi ambition in Asia. While the expansion of foreign player slots has shifted the balance and Saudi influence, J1 sides continue to fight against the narrative and prioritise domestic development over marquee imports. The rivalry remains as compelling as ever.
Machida, alongside Vissel Kobe, arrive with a unique advantage. With the J. League transitioning its calendar, both sides have been able to effectively use the past two months as a hybrid pre-season, allowing for a more focused build up towards this finals series.
Kobe, still chasing their lofty ambition of becoming Asia’s premier club, may never have a better opportunity. Their veteran core of Yuya Osako, Gotoku Sakai and Takahiro Ogihara bring experience, while the recent form of Katsuya Nagato and new signing Makoto Mitsuta add further impetus in attacking areas.
Despite being only two seasons removed from promotion, Machida are equally capable of troubling even the strongest opposition. Yuki Soma’s set-piece delivery has already proven a major weapon so far this campaign, while the spine of Gen Shoji, Yuto Nakayama and Brazilian forward Erik offers balance and resilience, qualities that could well expose Al Ittihad’s defensive vulnerability.
Elsewhere in the draw, opportunities emerge for some outsiders. For example, one of Buriram United, Shabab Al Ahli or Tractor Sazi is guaranteed a semi-final berth, though the latter’s inclusion remains increasingly uncertain amid regional tensions, and a tentative military ceasefire.
Even if they’re permitted to participate by the Iranian football federation, travel complications and player welfare concerns could significantly weaken the Iranian champions’ squad, particularly following calls for foreign players to be allowed temporary departures over the last month.
Johor Darul Ta’zim, meanwhile, arrive seeking to shift their very own narrative back at home. At the centre of the ongoing scrutiny over national team naturalisation, the 11-time consecutive champions, having already sealed a 12th title with five games to spare, will aim to translate their ever-increasing domestic dominance and attacking prowess onto the continental stage in their first quarter-final appearance.
Making the knockout stages for the seventh time, Al Sadd complete the final series lineup, entering in strong form after recovering from their mid-season dip. Roberto Mancini’s side have been particularly impressive since the break in play for the ongoing Gulf crisis, but a potential path to the final that could feature Al Hilal, Vissel Kobe and Al Ahli represents a daunting challenge.
For them to reach a first final since 2011, the attacking trio of Akram Afif, Roberto Firmino and Rafa Mujica will need to deliver at an altogether different level entirely.
The stage is set for a fascinating conclusion to the ACL Elite season. While the conditions appear primed for another Saudi triumph, the chasing pack, in varying forms and circumstances, will be looking to disrupt that narrative, however improbable it may seem.
