With Qatar and Saudi Arabia advancing from the Fourth Round of Asian Qualifiers, Asia’s set of eight teams is now complete for next year’s FIFA World Cup in the USA, Canada and Mexico.
Of course, that could become nine should either Iraq or the UAE win through from the inter-confederation playoffs next March, but for now the guaranteed places have all been occupied to complete Asia’s largest ever contingent at a World Cup tournament.
The progression of Qatar and Saudi Arabia isn’t without controversy though, with the two host nations benefitting from hosting these centralised round of matches.
Here we take a look at what we learned and some of the talking points stemming from these Fourth Round of matches.
Home comforts an unnecessary distraction
There was a great deal of frustration and anger from the other four nations when it was announced that Qatar and Saudi Arabia would act as hosts for these centralised round of matches.
When the AFC announced a revision to its qualifying format for the first ever 48-team FIFA World Cup on 1 July 2023, it announced that hosting for these matches would be decided by the results of the Third Round, with the two highest ranked nations earning that right.
As it transpired, that would have seen the UAE and Iraq granted the hosting rights for these two groups.
However, on 5 March this year, the AFC sent a circular to its Member Associations advising:
Pursuant to the Committee’s decision on 1 July 2023 regarding the revised competition format of the Asian Qualifiers – Road to 26 Playoff, and considering the sporting fairness among the groups and our hosting experiences with various Member Associations, the hosts for the two groups of the Asian Qualifiers Playoffs shall be selected through a bidding process to ensure that hosting conditions meet the highest international standards in all aspects.
The AFC Administration is mandated to conduct the bidding process and select the Host Associations accordingly.
From the moment the circular landed it was presumed that Saudi Arabia and Qatar, both struggling at that point in their respective campaigns, would be granted hosting rights, and so it proved. Despite the protestations of the other four nations, who also submitted bids, the decision stood.
It’s worth saying that whatever the mechanism, giving any team home advantage for such crucial matches is a mistake. Whether that was UAE and Iraq as highest ranked teams, or Qatar and Saudi Arabia as winning bidders. Neither is more palatable than the other given what is at stake.
But the format of qualifying left little room for anything else other than a centralised format, which should have necessitated neutral hosting to avoid any issues like we encountered this week where the hosts not only benefitted from playing at home, they also were the only teams to not play off a three-day break and enjoyed 90% of ticket allocations.
It clearly mattered.
Carlos Queiroz was the first to voice his displeasure this week, saying before his Oman side had even played a game that he had ‘never seen anything like it’ in his career.
“You know the qualifiers are being played in Qatar’s home,” he started. “We are playing in three days’ rest, Qatar with six days.
“If this is all about fair play for the people who made this decision, then I do not have any comments. I’ve worked for 40 years in football and this is not fair play for me.
“[Even is I was Qatar/Saudi coach] I would feel the same. I probably would not have said it, but I would’ve felt the same. When I leave the pitch, I want to go home with the right feeling that we won the game fair and square.”
Before Iraq’s game with Saudi Arabia, Graham Arnold tried to suggest hosting the fixtures actually added pressure onto the Green Falcons, who won only one of five home games in the previous round, and took the pressure off his team.
Post-game, however, having seen the Saudi celebrations he was dancing to a different tune, suggesting that the whole thing was grossly unfair.
“The reason Qatar and Saudi Arabia qualified was due to their home advantage, and due to the extended rest their teams benefited from,” a clearly disgruntled Arnold bemoaned.
How much it played a part in the final results we will never know. Saudi Arabia might have had home advantage, but that wasn’t the reason Iraq played so passively in a game they had to win.
But it was a narrative that dominated the past week and, in some senses, overshadows the achievements of Qatar and Saudi Arabia because they are perceived to have achieved them through political power rather than football merit.
Renard the Saudi Saviour
Herve Renard faced a mountain when he returned to the Kingdom almost 12 months ago looking to resuscitate Saudi Arabia’s ailing qualification campaign.
The Green Falcons had become a shadow of their former selves under Roberto Mancini, with just one win in their first four. But, perhaps most damning of all, they had scored just three goals and looked lifeless in attack.
The soul had been sucked out of the side, the fans were turning against the team and the overall mood around the national team was turning toxic. Renard’s remit was to firstly restore hope, and then restore life to the national team.
It hasn’t always been pretty, and in the grind of the qualifying campaign, the improvements haven’t always been evident but with the benefit of hindsight in the afterglow of qualification we can see the bigger picture of what he was able to achieve.
From his first 23-man squad for the games against Australia and Japan last November, just nine players remain, turning over more than 50 percent of his squad.
“I came here a year ago and the goal was to qualify directly, but that didn’t happen because we needed to improve in several aspects,” he said prior to the opening match against Indonesia.
“We have made good progress in our performance since the Gulf Cup [in December], and we must prove that on the field because the truth always appears on the field.
“Last January, I decided to change a large number of players; 50 percent of the players who were with us at that time changed. We developed technically, and tomorrow we will see if we have developed enough.”
One of those changes in particular made a significant impact across these two matches, Al Ahli’s Saleh Abu Al Shamat.
The 23-year-old had just one cap to his name prior to this round of matches, which came only a month prior in a win over North Macedonia.
But the dynamism he was able to bring to what had been a largely stagnant attack changed the game. Against Indonesia, for the first time in a while, there was fluidity and impetus about Saudi Arabia’s attack, and for the first time since June 2024 against Pakistan, Saudi Arabia scored three goals in a World Cup qualifying match.
It was that display that ultimately got them across the line, edging out Iraq by virtue of goals scored; somewhat ironic for a side that had struggled so much across the entire campaign to find the back of the net.
While some of those scoring troubles haunted them against Iraq, with a number of gilt edged opportunities spurned, Renard will take comfort from the fact the chances were created in the first place, something that wasn’t happening when he returned last year.
And that underlines the job Renard has been able to do. He has salvaged what not long ago looked a lost cause and returned Saudi Arabia to football’s global showpiece for the seventh time, keeping a promise he made to his late mother before her passing earlier this year.
No shortcut to success
Much has been said about the UAE’s decision to focus heavily on naturalised talent over the past two years, recruiting young talent to Emirati clubs with the sole purpose of granting citizenship after the required time period and thus bolstering the playing stocks of the national team in the hope of qualifying for the FIFA World Cup for the first time since 1990.
While that mission is still not over, with the Fifth Round Playoff against Iraq, and then possibly the inter-confederation playoffs to come next year, it has taken a sizeable body blow.
There’s no doubt in an increasingly diverse and multicultural world that naturalisation has a role to play in international football, and UAE are far from the only nation doing it. In fact the side that defeated them, Qatar, have plenty of naturalised talent of their own, while the football world is littered with examples of nations naturalising talent or tapping into their diaspora.
It is a valuable tool in bolstering depth, and perhaps plugging gaps left by domestic development.
But what it can never be is a shortcut to success. International football is about more than wins and losses, it is about identity and representation. Fans want to see themselves represented in their national team, and with such a rapid naturalisation program the UAE risk losing the identity of theirs.
While Qatar got the success, the same could also be said of them when a 41-year-old Sebastian Soria is still being deployed off the bench.
Emirati football needs to think about what it wants to be going forward and how it is going to achieve that, because while success has often deserted them they’re never short on talent.
There was the golden generation featuring the likes of Omar Abdulrahman, Ali Mabkhout and Ahmed Khalil, but even this generation has talent at its disposal. The question the Emirates has to grapple with surrounds giving them the opportunity, both at club and national team level.
Take 21-year-old Sultan Adil, who has spent the best part of the last year on the sidelines. He is yet to feature for Shabab Al Ahli this season and played just two matches, and 69 minutes for the entirety of last season in a side stacked with top end striking talent.
Yet his scoring record for the national team is impressive, with seven goals in 14 games. He featured only three times in qualifying, for a combined total of just 79 minutes, yet still found the net twice.
This is a talent to build a team around, as are talents such as Ali Saleh, Harib Abdalla and Yahya Al-Ghassani, and yet at club and national team level they are being pushed out by the influx of foreign talent.
With more in the pipeline it seems unlikely to stop any time soon, but at some point questions have to be asked whether it is actually aiding the development of Emirati football.
Listen to Episode 259 of The Asian Game Podcast LIVE from Doha and Jeddah
