Three and a half years on from their infamous group stage elimination, Qatar return to the FIFA World Cup under vastly different circumstances. The scrutiny is lower, the expectations more subdued, yet any sense of direction heading into the final weeks of preparation, in stark contrast to their decade-long build-up to 2022, feels increasingly muted.
For under fire coach Julen Lopetegui, while few will expect anything of his team’s chances in North America, concerns for a repeat humbling are slowly becoming a very realistic proposition.
Post-2022, the story of Qatar’s last four years has been anything but straightforward. From the immediate reset under Carlos Queiroz, to the unexpected Asian Cup redemption under a caretaker coaching team, a qualification campaign that veered between dysfunction and fortune before eventually being dragged over the line, even by their often-unconventional standards, can be considered eventful, arguably for all the wrong reasons.
The arrival of Julen Lopetegui last year was intended to provide stability and a degree of international pedigree. Instead, he has become the fourth manager in less than four years to struggle in truly establishing a clear identity and winning formula. The contrast with the carefully managed Project 2022 overseen by fellow Spaniard Felix Sanchez could hardly be more stark.
Ironically, the absence of competitive action during March’s international window, owing to the ongoing Gulf conflict, may have worked in Lopetegui’s favour. With memories of a disappointing Arab Cup exit still fresh in Qatari fans minds, additional fixtures would have only increased scrutiny on a side struggling to establish momentum.
Unlike his infamous departure from Spain on the eve of the 2018 World Cup, Lopetegui will at least get the opportunity to lead Qatar on football’s biggest stage. Whether he does so with unanimous backing remains a very different question altogether.
Current concerns cloud preparations
If the World Cup was still six months away, Lopetegui’s position would likely have been cut short under its current pressures. His survival in the hot seat, is out of mere inconvenience of the tournament’s immediate kick off, than any overwhelming trust in the project.
Nearly a year on from appointing Lopetegui, Qatar remain alarmingly short of conviction or mere potential. Results have stagnated, tactical evolution has been minimal, with little evidence that the team has progressed beyond the pragmatic approach that nudged them over the line in October.
When Lopetegui first arrived, Qatar at least demonstrated a degree of defensive organisation. They edged past Iran initially to force a qualification route via the playoffs, and found enough to overcome Oman and the UAE, riding on the emotional momentum generated by qualification in familiar home settings. Those foundations have gradually eroded ever since.
Last week’s pre-tournament friendly against Ireland offered another uncomfortable reminder of where Qatar currently stand. On paper, the starting lineup promised experimentation. In practice, it reinforced all too familiar concerns.
Operating from a low-block 4-2-3-1 that frequently resembles a more reactive 4-3-3, Qatar appeared primarily focused on containment and counter-attacking opportunities. Ireland provided an appropriate level of opposition; physical, direct and competitive, whilst still allowing Qatar enough possession to demonstrate attacking patterns of their own, having been reduced to 10-men in the first period. Those opportunities unfortunately were not exploited sufficiently.
Too often, attacks felt too predictable and disconnected. The burden once again fell on talisman Akram Afif, who spent much of the evening drifting across the pitch in search of influence. It was a familiar image – harking back to 2022, as a younger, frustrated Afif attempted to drag his nation out a nervous slumber – Qatar’s most gifted player was again dropping deep to manufacture creativity where little existed elsewhere.
Afif remains a constant amid the instability. While many around him have fluctuated in form over the past four years, he enters 2026 as a more mature and complete player than the one that appeared on the world stage for the first time under so much expectation in 2022. Yet the continued reliance on his individual brilliance exposes a deeper structural issue. A strategy that effectively boils down to “give the ball to Akram and hope he can do something with it” is unlikely to trouble any opposition, let alone the quality they are up against at the World Cup.
While general perceptions are low, there are areas of the squad still capable of providing support to their leading man. The full-back positions are one area that can potentially offer some encouragement, with left-back Homam Ahmed stepping up to provide some scarce European experience to the squad, alongside 21-year-old right-back Ayoub Al-Oui, who is set to emerge as one of Qatar’s few promising youngsters looking forward.
Progress in deploying them effectively from a conservative defensive structure, however, has meant more emphasis on individual moments rather than a distinct tactical flow.
This puts more emphasis on output in the final third. Ahead of 2022, discussions centred on how to accommodate an abundance of attacking talent within a settled system. Ahead of 2026, the challenge seems almost the opposite.
The brief case of derision surrounding 42-year-old Sebastian Soria’s inclusion in an early training camp reflected the lack of convincing alternatives rather than any serious expectation he would play a significant role, yet in realistic terms there isn’t exactly the abundance of quality to truly consider themselves noticeably above the legendary striker in the Qatar’s current pecking order.
Against Ireland, Lopetegui experimented with usual winger Yusuf Abdurisag in the central attacking role, searching for greater movement and energy, while Almoez Ali and Ahmed Alaaeldin struggle to rediscover (generous for the latter) their best form.
The move smacked of desperation for a coach who still hasn’t settled on how best to set up his Qatar side as an attacking force. This would be all well 12 months out from the World Cup – not a mere 12 days out from the tournament’s kick off.
Mapping a way forward
The reality for Qatar is that qualification alone cannot be viewed as the end goal to this once highly thought of golden generation.
Back-to-back Asian Cup triumphs raised expectations and reinforced the belief that the national team could build upon the foundations laid before 2022. Instead, much of the progress achieved during that period has stalled amid managerial turnover, tactical inconsistency and an increasingly fragmented footballing vision, that shifts from homegrown to nationalised, and from youth to experience, with every given international window. That does not mean the situation is beyond repair.
Qatar’s strongest performances over the past decade have been built upon a unified strength from underestimation. The side that won continental titles possessed a defined structure, understood its strengths and maximised the collective rather than relying on individual moments, crucially coming together when others wrote them off. Recreating that cohesion, even partially, would provide a platform for an improvement from their debut World Cup.
The squad remains limited by the realities of a small domestic player pool, something Lopetegui has repeatedly highlighted, however, limitations alone do not explain the current lack of identity. Qatar may not possess the depth of larger footballing nations, but they still have enough talent to appear more coherent than they currently do.
Ultimately, success for Lopetegui and the Qatar Football Association may be measured differently. Internally, qualification itself may satisfy certain objectives. Externally, another damaging tournament could leave a generation of footballers unfulfilled – facing an upward task in rebuilding confidence ahead of another Asian Cup retention campaign.
For a nation that once appeared poised to establish itself as West Asia’s dominant footballing force on the world stage, another underwhelming campaign would further reinforce the perception of a region that makes more noise off the pitch than it does on it.
In truth, the rest of the world will barely notice another early Qatari exit. Given the lack of engagement built on the back of 2022 in a footballing sense, and the bloated nature of a modern day World Cup, we have to accept the likes of Qatar will likely become mere footnotes within this intense saturation of global football.
Within Asia and Qatar itself, however, a second consecutive World Cup humbling would raise uncomfortable questions about whether a decade of progress leading towards 2022 has given way to a prolonged period of decline.
