With the finals of the AFC Champions League Elite due to kick off this weekend in Jeddah, on the shores of the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia, all focus will be on the three Saudi Arabian sides in the final eight.
Just how big is their home advantage, and can anyone stop them from lifting the trophy at the Alinma Stadium on 3 May?
On the latest episode of The Asian Game Podcast we discussed their status, whether the home advantage would prove too strong and whether anyone can stop them in their tracks?
Saudi sides favourites regardless of venue
Michael Church
Forget, even for a moment, that these games are being played on Saudi soil. They obviously have a home field advantage, particularly at Al Ahli who are playing at home, and obviously Al Hilal and Al Nassr are both very familiar with the conditions and everything else.
But, all of that aside, the amount of money that’s been pumped into the top three or four clubs in Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabian football in general means that these three teams have squads that far surpass what is available to pretty much anybody else across the continent, especially the other five teams that are playing here. So for it to be anybody other than Al Nassr, Al Hilal or Al Ahli would be a major surprise.
Al Hilal vulnerable against Gwangju
Paul Williams
It almost sounds odd to say in the context of talking about the (AFC) Champions League, but I think it’s Al Hilal that are actually the most vulnerable in this and I think it’s for two reasons.
Firstly, I think on paper, they’ve got the most difficult opponent of the three. Gwangju were one of the best sides, and they’re not historically a strong team in Korea, but they were one of the best sides in the East Zone. They surprised a lot of people, and are actually in good form domestically at the moment. Marinos may have a higher profile, but you look at their form domestically, they come into this in in terrible form, whereas Gwangju come in, I think they’ve won three of their last four domestically. They were second on the table.
So I think on paper, they’ve got the toughest opponent, and Lee Jung-ho, their coach, is a really interesting manager. He sort of breaks the Korean mould in a lot of ways, he’s eccentric in a lot of ways, with the glasses that he wears, with the outfits that he wears. He cites progressive managers like Ange Postecoglou as his inspiration, and while his teams may not necessarily always play that style of football, he’s not your tried and tested Korean football manager. And in a player like Jasir Asani they’ve got a genuine star too, who turned the game against Vissel Kobe and can turn a game in a moment. So I think Hilal coming up against them in the quarter-finals is a banana skin, because their form has nosedived domestically as well.
They’ve only won four of their last 11, which for a side that went 40-odd games undefeated just recently, is close to a full-blown crisis. You know, they’ve, they’ve lost games to it Al Ittihad, they’ve lost games to Al Ahli, they’ve lost games to Pakhatakor in the previous round as well. And I just think they’re they’re vulnerable coming into this.
I remember a quote was used here in an AFL context, but it’s an old Arnold Schwarzenegger quote from one of his movies, that ‘if it bleeds, we can kill it’. And I think Al Hilal are bleeding at the moment, the aura that they have, I don’t think necessarily, certainly within Saudi Arabia this season, in the league, it doesn’t exist anymore.
Is this Al Nassr’s and Ronaldo’s moment?
Michael Church
It’s hard to say, right? I mean, as we’ve already discussed, it’s so even across, certainly those three Saudi teams. But certainly (Cristiano) Ronaldo has got, what is it, 23 or 24 goals already this season. So he’s not slowing down any in the goal scoring stakes. He scored a great goal not last weekend, the weekend before, a great volley, which resonated especially on social media, lots of people getting excited about the fact that a guy who turned 40 in January is still banging goals of that calibre.
And look, they’re much, much more than just Cristiano Ronaldo, we’ve watched this team over the last couple of seasons get built into a team that has quality in attack. Sadio Mane, obviously, is another player who has great European experience, doing very well with Liverpool whenever he was there. Jhon Duran, who obviously came in in the January transfer window from Aston Villa, only 21 and obviously somebody who’s going to be a big star in the future. And he’s come in and he’s hit the ground running and scoring goals. They’ve got Angelo, they’ve got Otavio, they’ve got Brozovic, they’ve got Aymeric Laporte; there’s a lot of quality right throughout the squad.
They come into this as well, I think they’ve only lost one game in the last eight or nine matches in in all competitions, so they’re going to be hard to beat. But, the teams that they’ve been losing to are the teams that they’re likely to be playing against, the likes of Al Hilal and Al Ahli, but ultimately I think we’re going to be seeing two of the Saudi teams in the final.
Al Ahli flying under the radar
Paul Williams
In terms of the team I think who might do well, I think it’s Al Ahli, who I reckon are going to sneak under the radar a little bit I think because of the profile they’ve got. Al Hilal, they’re going to take a lot of the attention, and so is Al Nassr because of Cristiano Ronaldo, but I think likely because they’ve actually got actual home ground advantage.
Al Nassr and Al Hilal are from Riyadh, but they’re (Al Ahli) actually playing at their home stadium, and they have probably some of the best fans in Saudi Arabia, so they’re going to get the full advantage of that.
And I think they’ve probably got the most favorable draw. I mean, no team is easy at this stage of the competition, but I’m sure all of the teams would have been hoping they drew Buriram United who are on paper the weakest. That’s not to say I think they’re easy beats, but they’re, they’re certainly a team you’d prefer to get.
And I think when you look at the talent they’ve got in their squad, Galeno has made a massive difference since he came in in January, Ivan Toney’s finally banging in goals for fun that he didn’t do at the start of his time with with Al Ahli, he’s got 19 so far this season, and then you’ve got someone like Riyad Mahrez pulling the strings, who still is one of the best players in the SPL.
And so I think they’re just going to sneak under the radar, and there’s only three rounds in this competition, so they’ll quickly get onto that radar, but I reckon they’re just going to sneak under a little bit. I don’t know if I’d say they’re the favourites, but they’re certainly my sneaky chance to go on and lift the title that perhaps people at this stage aren’t expecting.
Photos: x/ALAHLIFC_EN
Listen to Episode 243 of The Asian Game Podcast as we preview the AFC Champions League Elite Finals.
